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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
A surface trough over portions of Central America and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

This system is expected to move northwestward during the next day or so, bringing locally heavy rains to these areas.

The disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and then move northward or northeastward over the central Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development through Monday, but environmental conditions could become marginally favorable for some gradual development on Tuesday or Wednesday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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μολὼν λαβέ
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That thing need to die out right now and go away.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
9/5/21 update

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance.

Locally heavy rains are likely to continue today over that area.

The system is forecast to move northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today, then move slowly northward or northeastward over the western or central Gulf of Mexico.

Upper-level winds are only expected to be marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation, but some slow development is possible while the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
9/6/21 Update

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance.

The system is forecast to move slowly northward or northeastward over the central and then northeastern Gulf of Mexico, likely reaching the northern Gulf coast in a few days.

Although upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development to occur, they are expected to become marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation in a couple of days.

The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States beginning midweek, and some development will be possible once it emerges over the Atlantic waters late this week.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
9/7/21 update

Showers and thunderstorms have increased today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance.

The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they are forecast to become more conducive for some limited tropical or subtropical cyclone development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some slight additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
9/8/21 update

Disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance.

The system is expected to move northeastward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today.

Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support some tropical or subtropical development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday.

The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
9/8/21 PM UPDATE

Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.

In addition, satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better defined today.

If these development trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional development.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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